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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."